Collapse Catch-Up: June 10-16, 2023

Welcome to the 18th edition of Collapse Catch-Up, a weekly newsletter that catches you up on the latest signs that we are living through the collapse of global industrial civilization. You can find the 17th edition here.

This week I have news about high temperature records, shockingly high sea surface temperatures, the fight between climate activists and governments, a copper shortage which could halt the green energy revolution, lower crop yields due to heat and droughts, microplastics getting lodged in our airways, the largest air exercise in NATO history, and much more. Here we go…

Heat

The average global temperature temporarily rose 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels for the first time this month, exceeding the threshold agreed to in the Paris Climate Agreement, according to the Copernicus Climate Change Service. They warned that as El Niño continues to develop, global temperatures will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C in the coming year.

Mexico is sweltering under an atypical heat wave, with temperature records being broken all over the place, including Mexico City, which had its hottest June day ever. The heatwave is spreading north across Texas and Louisiana, and will likely last until June 24th.

China and also had its hottest June day ever at 48.8°C. Other countries experiencing record high temperatures include Honduras, Belize, South Africa, Mozambique, Scotland, Norway, and India.

So many high temperature records are falling that some people say it’s time to panic. According to a forecast from the North American Electric Reliability Corporation, two-thirds of the United States is in danger of blackouts from summer heat waves.

In the United Kingdom, National Grid activated a coal-fired power plant in order to meet the increased demand for air conditioning. Of course, the emissions from burning coal will only trap more heat in the atmosphere, causing even further demand for air conditioning in the future.

Wildfires

Last week, the US had its worst day of wildfire smoke on record. The smoke was so bad that ER visits for asthma soared in New York City. Although some media outlets are claiming the smoke is safe to breathe, experts warn that wildfire smoke can irritate the eyes and lungs, and it can worsen chronic heart and lung diseases.

Smoke from the Canadian wildfires is reaching several other US states as well, such as Minnesota. Canada is having its worst wildfire season in history, and it’s going to get worse. Fortunately, there may be cooler weather and some rain in the coming weeks.

According to new research, climate change has made California wildfires five times bigger. Warmer temperatures and longer droughts have dried out vegetation, providing ample fuel for the fires. As climate change worsens, there will be more frequent and longer-lasting wildfires.

Oceans

Sea surface temperatures have been at a record high for nearly 3 months now, and scientists are baffled. There are many theories as to why the ocean is so warm, such as the International Maritime Organization mandating cleaner shipping fuel. The result is fewer aerosols in the air, which means more sunlight is hitting the water.

Some scientists are worried that we have breached a climate tipping point. However, it may be a combination of several factors, including the onset of El Niño. Whatever the cause, scientists fear it will mean more extreme weather.

Both Arctic and Antarctic sea ice extent are unusually low for this time of year. The Arctic could have an ice-free summer in the near future. Meanwhile, the Antarctic deep ocean water is warming at an alarming rate, and it could have far-reaching consequences for the global climate.

In the Gulf of Mexico, the low-oxygen “dead zone” is predicted to be about 4,100 square miles this summer, which is more than twice the size of a federal goal to reduce nutrient runoff from fertilizer use. Dead zones can kill ocean life on a mass scale, and they’re likely the reason tens of thousands of dead fish washed ashore on Texas beaches.

Climate Crisis

A new report from the UN Refugee Agency says a record 110 million people have been driven from their homes due to violent conflicts and climate-related disasters. According to the report, “The 46 least developed countries account for less than 1.3% of global gross domestic product, yet they hosted more than 20% of all refugees.”

The refugee crisis will only get worse as the planet warms, and it’s warming fast. A new analysis from 50 climate scientists found that global warming will surpass the Paris Agreement limit of 1.5°C for the whole year by 2037. To many, that seems optimistic since we could soon temporarily breach the 1.5 limit.

Activists are doing what they can to raise awareness. In Stockholm, environment activists smeared red paint and glued their hands to the protective glass on a famous Monet painting in Stockholm’s National Museum. The organisation, Aterstall Vatmarker (Restore Wetlands), claimed responsibility. As they said in an interview, “gorgeous gardens like those in Monet’s painting will soon be a distant memory.”

Being a climate activist is becoming more and more dangerous as governments crack down on free speech. In Great Britain, legislation in parliament could give police near total discretion over protests, allowing them disrupt or shut down a protest whenever they want. Activists worry that legislation like this will make people afraid to protest the government.

In Montana, 16 young people are taking a different approach: suing the government. According to the plaintiffs, the state of Montana put the interests of the fossil fuel industry over their climate future, which violates their constitutional guarantee to a “clean and healthful environment” for “present and future generations.”

The groundbreaking case, Held vs Montana, began this week. And if it’s successful, it could set a new legal precedent that bolsters climate change efforts in other American states. However, some pundits have pointed out that even if they win, it won’t require any specific action by the state of Montana.

Nearly half the world’s biggest companies have promised to be “net zero by 2050.” However, according to a Net Zero Stocktake 2023 report, only a handful of them have credible plans to do so. The rest of the pledges are largely meaningless because they ignore downstream emissions.

Even if the pledges were good, companies can simply back out at any time. Shell, for example, has dropped its pledge to cut oil production every year because the CEO wants higher profits. Another example is Amazon, which has given up its Shipment Zero initiative. This initiative aimed to make 50% of Amazon shipments net-zero carbon by 2030, but apparently that was all blah blah blah.

Pledges by government are mostly meaningless, too. According to a study published in Earth System Science Data, average global temperatures are rising at a faster rate despite pledges by world leaders. Another study, published in the journal Science, says about 90% of the top-polluting countries’ net-zero targets are unlikely to be achieved. As Greta Thunberg recently said, the political will to solve the climate crisis is “nowhere to be seen.”

Although China is the world’s largest emitter of greenhouse gas emissions, they’re at least making some progress. As of last week, non-fossil fuel energy sources such as wind and solar power now account for 50.9% of China’s electricity generation capacity. However, electricity only accounts for about 20% of energy consumption, so they have a long way to go.

The UN is considering reforms that would limit the influence of the fossil fuel industry in global climate negotiations. Many activists were angry when they learned that Sultan al Jaber, CEO of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company, would be president of COP28. Hopefully, the UN will prevent something like this from happening again.

Renewables

Most people are unaware of the looming copper shortage, which is a huge problem for the tech industry. The increasing demand for electronic devices and renewables is likely to lead to copper shortages in the next decade, crushing people’s dreams of a green-energy future. According to a paper by the European Commission, stakeholders are denying the shortage and assuming copper will always be plentiful.

Meanwhile, a study by think tank Climate Analytics says that to prevent a climate catastrophe, we need to ramp up wind and solar energy five times faster, for a total of 1.5 TW of energy each year by 2030. Considering that we are running out of copper and other metals, it’s hard to see how this could ever happen.

Fossil fuel companies continue to insist that carbon capture technology will come to the rescue, but there is no evidence that this is possible. This is why US climate envoy John Kerry said we should “be very skeptical about this unless it’s proven to work.”

Food

Extremely dry conditions have put southern Albertan farmers on the road to zero production this year. With little to no precipitation since mid-April, moisture levels are at a 50-year low. Stephen Vandervalk, a farmer and vice president of the Western Canadian Wheat Growers Association, estimates that they have already lost a third of their crops.

Dry weather has become a problem for farmers all around the world, including the United States. In Michigan, the lack of rain is impacting strawberry yields. In the Midwest, corn and soybean crops are struggling. And in Georgia, peaches are in short supply, with one farmer saying that this year’s harvest is the worst he’s ever seen.

Drought and heat aren’t the only things killing crops. In Afghanistan, hundreds of thousands of locusts have descended on wheat fields, eating everything that is green. The outbreak is the worst the country has seen in decades, and it could destroy up to 25% of their wheat crops during a time when 9 in 10 Afghans already struggle to put food on the table.

Some people are putting their hopes into indoor farming technology. A report by Global Insight Services says the indoor farming technology market is projected to grow every year until at least 2031. The high costs of infrastructure and equipment have been a problem, but as food becomes more expensive, indoor farmers will be able to justify the cost.

Pollution and Biodiversity

A few years ago, scientists discovered that most humans ingest about a credit cards’ worth of microplastics every week. Now, scientists have discovered that some people could be inhaling a credit cards’ worth of microplastics every week.

According to a study published in the journal Physics of Fluids, some humans may be inhaling about 16.2 bits of microplastics every hour. Scientists say the microplastics are getting lodged in airways and causing breathing problems in some people. Although they don’t fully understand the health effects of microplastics, one thing they know for sure is that microplastics often carry toxic pollutants and chemicals which can cause diseases like cancer.

Environmental groups are suing the EPA over pesticide-coated seeds, specifically neonicotinoids, which can have “devastating environmental impacts.” The lawsuit alleges that seeds are used on about 150 million acres of US farmland, with up to 95% of the pesticide contaminating nearby soil, water, and air. The suit challenges the EPA for exempting the seeds from pesticide registration.

Seeds coated with neonicotinoids are also deadly to birds, which regularly pick them up and eat them. This is just one of the many reasons that 2 out of 3 North American bird species are facing extinction. Other reasons include habitat loss and climate change.

Disease

Speaking of birds, hundreds of birds were found dead on the Pacific coast of Mexico, but authorities don’t know why. One of the most likely explanations is bird flu (H5N1), which has been killing millions of wild birds all around the world.

Bird flu isn’t just killing birds, though. More and more mammals are being infected as well. As of June 12, 2023, 196 mammals in the U.S. have been found with bird flu. It’s even worse in other countries. Chile, for example, has found over 11,000 sea mammals killed by bird flu.

Experts say that if bird flu starts spreading among people, existing vaccines may be inadequate. The U.S. already has a stockpile of H5N1 vaccines, but if bird flu turns into a pandemic, it will have evolved so much that the vaccines would provide very little protection. To solve this problem, researchers are working on creating a variety of vaccine options targeting different strains of H5N1.

It’s hard to overstate how disastrous a bird flu pandemic would be, especially since we’re still dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic. According to research conducted by researchers at University College London and the University of Exeter, Long Covid can impair quality of life even more than advanced cancers.

The researchers gave questionnaires to people with Long Covid and compared their quality of life scores to people with other diseases, such as cancer. They found that overall, the impact of Long Covid on daily activities was even worse than for stroke victims and comparable to people with Parkinson’s disease.

Early research suggests that about 17% of people who get Covid end up developing Long Covid. Maybe this is part of the reason nearly 1 in 5 adults have been diagnosed with depression.

Geopolitics

This week, NATO began its largest air exercise in history. Twenty-five nations are taking part in the two-week “Air Defender” exercise, which is being hosted by Germany with 250 aircraft and about 10,000 personnel. The exercise simulates a massive air deployment in reaction to an attack on a member state, and is meant to be a show of force against Russia.

Speaking at a meeting of pro-war bloggers in the Kremlin, Putin admitted that Russia doesn’t have enough weapons and drones to win the war in Ukraine. He said the military needs more precision-guided munitions, communications equipment, aircraft, and particularly drones.

Without enough weapons, Russia could resort to other tactics, such as destroying undersea communications cables, which Europe relies on for internet and other forms of communication. According to former Russian president, Dmitry Medvedev, Russia would be justified in doing this since NATO blew up the Nordstream Pipeline.

Another tactic they could resort to is a tactical nuke, a very real danger now that Russia has moved nuclear weapons into Belarus. This marks the first deployment of tactical nuclear weapons outside of Russia since the USSR collapsed in 1991. According to research from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the number of operational nuclear weapons around the world is rising.

Yet another tactic Russia could resort to is cyberattacks. On June 14th, pro-Russian hackers announced that they would attack the Western financial system. One day later, several US government agencies were hit in a global cyberattack. The attack is ongoing, and it remains to be seen how bad it will get.

The rift between Eastern and Western nations continues to rise, with more and more countries talking about dumping the US dollar for trade. Recently, the President of Kenya urged other African nations to stop using the US dollar. If enough nations dump the US dollar, it could have a severe impact on US living standards.

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is seeking closer ties with China, and that is causing Western leaders to worry. Saudi Arabia has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, so who they do business with has a significant effect on geopolitics. Speaking at an Arab-China business conference, Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, said he is ignoring Western worries.

Apparently, the US has been preparing evacuation plans for American citizens in Taiwan. The planning has been underway for at least six months, and it’s being done in case of a worst-case scenario where China and the US clash over the fate of Taiwan. The US says it wants to maintain open lines of communication with China, but some pundits are arguing the US eagerness to engage in discussion is an illusion.

Conclusion

That’s all for this week! Let me know if I missed anything or if you have any feedback.

I share this news to remind you that if you haven’t started preparing for the collapse of civilization, now is the time to start stockpiling supplies, learning basic skills, and making friends in your local community. If this news made you anxious, please visit this page for a list of resources that can help.

You can also get this newsletter by subscribing on Medium or Substack. Until next time,

— Alan